RCP have Obama on 48.9% and Romney on 44.6%, a 4.3% spread. Obama is crawling towards the 50% mark, which must be worrying the hell out of the Romney camp, despite his denial that the numbers are important. While they may not indicate the final result, they do, as I’ve already said, influence the undecided. If Romney looks like a loser, people will either vote for Obama, to back the winner, or simply not vote in order to say they didn’t vote for a loser.
There are some interesting stats to be found here. Go have a look, I’ll wait. It’s a comparison of the current campaigns compared to those of 2004. It might sound like a better comparison to use the 2008 data, but in that election neither candidate had the advantage of incumbency. 2004 gives us a look at an election with a relatively unpopular president and and an equally underwhelming challenger. The race is certainly tighter this time around – Bush held a six point lead at this stage in 2004 – but there’s a key difference. Kerry often held the lead, losing it around the time of the conferences. Romney has never held the lead for an real period of time, and he failed to take much out of the conference. His inability to defend himself from attacks,much like Kerry, is harming him a lot as well. This is yet another sign pointing towards a narrow Obama victory in November.